Horizon Scanning (August 2025)
Executive Summary
U.S.–India Trade Tensions Escalate: President Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on Indian imports in a move seen as an attempt to pressure Delhi into reducing economic ties with Russia. It’s a classic example of Trump’s geoeconomic statecraft, using economic tools to achieve geopolitical aims. However, posturing as if to burn bridges with one of America’s few natural allies in Asia could prove to be a costly miscalculation.
Iran Faces Sanctions Snapback Deadline: The UK, France, and Germany have set a 29 August deadline for Iran to return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal or face the reimposition of sweeping UN sanctions. Tehran’s longstanding delay tactics are no longer tenable, as the regime attempts to reassert strength and credibility following humiliating Israeli and U.S. strikes on its nuclear and military infrastructure.
VJ Day at 80: Nuclear Legacy and Shifting Power: The 80th anniversary of VJ Day on 14 August 2025 marks a pivotal moment not only in the history of World War II but also in the shaping of the modern international order. The postwar U.S. hegemony that followed now feels like a distant memory amid today’s multipolar realities.
Bolivia’s Fragmented Election Landscape: Bolivia heads into its general election amid political fragmentation and volatility. Infighting within the ruling party and rising pre-election violence have raised concerns that turnout could be suppressed and confidence in the legitimacy of the vote undermined.
India–Philippines Naval Drills Signal Pushback Against China: In their first bilateral exercise, India and the Philippines conducted joint naval operations near Scarborough Shoal—contested territory under Chinese control. The move underscores growing regional coalitions pushing back against Beijing’s expansive South China Sea claims.
Trump, Tariffs, and the Trouble with India: Strategic Play or Strategic Blunder?
The trials and tribulations of Trump’s tariffs continue. As his latest deadline passes (running late on this one—thanks for bearing with me), the biggest geopolitical takeaway is the tensions brewing between Delhi and Washington. This has blindsided some political analysts, given the personal rapport between Trump and Modi, visible in their past meetings, with the latter calling the former a “True Friend.” But for now, this bromance has hit a bump in the road, with the relationship between the two quickly souring. A former advisor to Modi, Ashok Malik, was quoted in The New York Times stating that “relations appear to be the worst since the early 1990s.”
