SITREP: Trump considers seizing Iran’s Kharg Island

U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated he may consider sending troops to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, in a move analysts say would be high-risk and potentially costly.

Despite the bombastic posturing in front of the media, the Trump administrations has worked itself into a tight corner with the Iran conflict. As Trump tries to devise an exit strategy without further humiliation, Trump has indicated he may consider sending troops to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. However, Trump has made no justification for the reason to take Kharg island, but taking the island would give Washington control over most of Iran’s oil exports, offering leverage without immediately disrupting global markets. It could also strengthen U.S. efforts to pressure Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon is preparing options that include deploying troops from the 82nd Airborne Division and two Marine Expeditionary Units, each with about 2,200 Marines.

However, any assault would be complex. U.S. forces would face threats from Iranian mines, drones and missiles when approaching the island, and holding it would be difficult, with resupply operations exposed to sustained attack.

In the following sections we carry out an operational assessment to see if the US can actually take Kharg island; look at Iran’s response menu, the three most likely scenarios and commercial implications; and the big question few are asking, what’s the exit strategy from Kharg island if Iran does not fold.